Patrimoine & finance Selection de la rédaction

Les 6 secrets de Peter Lynch pour gagner en Bourse

Ecrit par AdminLDA

Chaque investisseur individuel pourrait-il rivaliser avec les meilleurs professionnels ?

Oui pense l’investisseur légendaire Peter Lynch qui a réussi à générer pour ses clients un retour annuel moyen supérieur à 29%, plus du double de la performance de l’indice S&P500. Il aura ainsi porté la valeur de son fonds Magellan de seulement 18 millions de dollars en 1977 à 14 milliards de dollars en 1990, lorsqu’il décide de prendre sa retraite pour se consacrer à sa famille et à ses activités caritatives.

Vous rêvez d’une telle performance pour votre portefeuille ?

Peter Lynch nous livre avec beaucoup d’humour dans son best-seller Up On Wall Street les clefs de sa stratégie boursière.

Voici pour vous les principes essentiels à retenir.

1. Investissez dans ce que vous connaissez

Il s’agit de la règle d’or pour Peter Lynch. En tant qu’investisseur, pour réussir à « battre » le marché, vous devez disposer d’informations qui ne sont pas encore parvenues aux autres intervenants sur le marché afin d’identifier avant tout le monde les opportunités de sociétés sous-évaluées. Observez dans votre vie personnelle et professionnelle de tous les jours si vous remarquez des sociétés encore discrètes, mais en plein développement grâce à la qualité de leurs produits ou services.

Ne vous aventurez pas dans les domaines que vous ne connaissez pas. Si vous êtes ingénieur dans l’aéronautique par exemple, utilisez vos connaissances du secteur pour dénicher des sociétés dont vous savez que leurs produits sont promis à un brillant avenir. Evitez à tout prix les sociétés dont vous ne comprenez pas le métier, c’est une erreur qui peut coûter très cher, particulièrement dans les phases de bulle technologique.

Investir dans ce que vous connaissez vous donnera également la confiance et le courage nécessaires pour passer au travers des soubresauts épisodiques du marché et même profiter de ces périodes pour renforcer vos positions.

2. Soyez un investisseur « contrarien »

Rester dans le troupeau peut vous donner le sentiment de la sécurité, mais en matière d’investissement c’est tout le contraire.

Vérifiez toujours le nombre d’analystes qui suivent une valeur et la part du capital détenue par les investisseurs institutionnels. Si la masse des analystes et des investisseurs institutionnels s’intéresse à une valeur, c’est un très mauvais signe, il y a de fortes chances qu’elle soit déjà pleinement valorisée voire surachetée. Si vous voulez trouver une société véritablement sous-valorisée, celle-ci doit être passée sous leur radar.

De la même manière, si le cours baisse fortement sans relation avec une dégradation des fondamentaux, ne vendez pas et trouvez le courage de renforcer vos positions.

Peter Lynch déconseille donc l’utilisation de stop-loss automatiques conduisant à vendre une valeur aveuglément au-delà d’un certain seuil. Sachez ignorer le bruit de la foule et concentrez-vous sur les fondamentaux.

 

Réciproquement, ne vendez pas une action simplement parce que vous avez atteint un objectif de gain prédéterminé. Le potentiel de l’action doit uniquement être considéré au regard de l’évolution de ces fondamentaux. Certaines valeurs ont le potentiel pour vous rapporter plusieurs fois votre capital de départ si vous avez la patience de les conserver sur plusieurs années.

3. Un marché porteur ne suffit pas

Un marché en fort développement ne signifie pas qu’il existe une opportunité d’investissement.

Prenez l’exemple récent du boom de l’impression 3D. Les ventes sont en croissance constante à un rythme de plus de 30% par an et on prévoit une croissance exponentielle pour les années à venir.

Pourtant, ces derniers mois, de nombreuses compagnies cotées dans ce secteur ont connu un parcours boursier désastreux, tel que DDD Systems qui a perdu près de 75% par rapport à ses plus hauts.

Cette dégringolade était prévisible étant donné l’intensité de la concurrence qui fait rage dans ce secteur. Dans ce contexte, les entreprises sont contraintes d’investir toujours plus en R&D dans l’espoir de gagner la course à l’innovation, tout en devant faire face à une pression à la baisse sur les prix, rendant très difficile pour elles d’atteindre le seuil de rentabilité. Les rares sociétés qui réussissaient à être rentables affichaient un PER de plusieurs centaines de fois leurs bénéfices, totalement déconnecté de leurs taux de croissance.

Soyez donc prudent, ce n’est pas parce qu’un marché est promis à un brillant avenir qu’investir dans les actions des entreprises de ce secteur vous assurera des plus-values confortables : il se pourrait même qu’une majorité d’entre elles n’existent plus dans 10 ans.

Un ratio très simple à calculer est le rapport entre la somme du taux de croissance du bénéfice par action et du rendement de l’action (dividende/cours de l’action) moyen sur les dernières années et le PER. Selon Peter Lynch, si ce ratio est inférieur à 1 vous devriez rester à l’écart, s’il est supérieur à 2 c’est une opportunité d’achat.

Prenez par exemple le cas d’Air Liquide.

L’action affiche un PER de 23,3 et un rendement de 2,5% au cours actuel. Sur ces 10 dernières années, le bénéfice par action a progressé de 7,8% par an en moyenne et cette progression a été très régulière. Le ratio de Lynch (appelons-le ainsi) est donc de (7,8+2,5)/23 = 0,45.

L’idéal est de vérifier le ratio sur différentes périodes, par exemple 5 ans (moyen terme) et 3 ans (court terme), ainsi que sur la base des prévisions pour l’année à venir, afin de vérifier si la société connaît une accélération ou une décélération (qui se traduirait par une détérioration du ratio sur les périodes plus courtes). La moyenne sur 10 ans présente l’intérêt d’atténuer les effets de conjoncture économique.

Bien sûr les conditions actuelles du marché en Europe et aux Etats-Unis ne vous permettront pas forcément de trouver des sociétés respectant ce critère, vous pouvez donc comparer le ratio d’une société avec la moyenne du marché pour déterminer si elle est ou non surévaluée.

4. N’investissez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre

La taille de vos positions doit donc être dictée par ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre sans menacer votre sécurité financière et celle de votre famille. Le marché est un maniaco-dépressif et vous devez donc être préparé à gérer ces situations. Des positions trop importantes réduiront votre capacité à rester rationnel lorsque le marché devient fou. Vous risquez de vendre au pire moment lors des phases de panique ou au contraire de vous laisser piéger dans une bulle.

5. Que font les cadres dirigeants ?
Les insiders, c’est-à-dire les cadres dirigeants et les employés de l’entreprise, sont un très bon indicateur de sous-valorisation ou de survalorisation d’une société. Ils sont en effet les mieux informés des fondamentaux de la société. Malheureusement, certaines réglementations financières réduisent leur liberté d’acheter ou de vendre des actions de leur propre société.

Néanmoins, si vous constatez qu’ils détiennent une part importante du capital, ou mieux encore, qu’ils tendent à racheter régulièrement des actions, c’est un très bon signal. Bien sûr, dans le cas inverse, vous devriez probablement vous aussi vous débarrasser de vos actions…

Si par exemple votre biotech favorite a pour actionnaire principal la banque publique d’investissement et que son dirigeant-fondateur a réduit sa participation à presque 0, conserver cette position serait probablement une mauvaise idée.

De la même façon, une société qui annonce un programme de rachat d’action signale aux investisseurs que les dirigeants estiment l’action sous-valorisée, il s’agit donc d’un signal d’achat. Au contraire, une société qui se finance par émission d’action alors que son endettement est limité indique que l’action est surévaluée.

6. Si vous apercevez un professeur de fac ou d’école de commerce, fuyez

Comme vous pouvez le deviner, Peter Lynch n’aime pas beaucoup les profs…Il croit au bon sens et c’est pour cela qu’il pense que tout investisseur individuel (comme vous et moi) pourrait réaliser une meilleure performance que tous les gérants de fonds bardés de diplômes.

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